Messages
Tuesday, November 9 2010
11:46 AM since yesterday .... the activity has shifted to smaller cap stocks while frontline is under pressure ......
investors shud keep booking profit in these smaller stocks from time to time and not commit more than 10/20 % of capital to them ....
pl take care ......
12:14 PM SBI is clearly under pressure .... last qtr was MANIPULATION to say the least ....... so the performance was virtually impossible to repeat .... read my comments after last results .....
bank managements hv complete freedom to do that as there r no regulations about HOW MUCH SHUD BE THE PROVISIONING against NPAs......
even employee wages were underplayed ......
SEBI and RBI shud take note and formulate some rules .......
ICICI may hv done same this qtr .... suddenly the provisioning may go up next qtr .... who knows ? ? ?
pl circulate this message to as many as u can .....
Friday, November 5 2010
05:40 PM HAPPY DIWALI
AND
PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR
Monday, November 1 2010
11:21 PM ICICI ... shud correct further .... to 1170/80 level ....... hold option strategy suggested yesterday ....... u may cover 1100 put and sell 1150 put .... reducing yr cost further ..........
11:23 PM madhav ranade (11/1/2010 9:55:03 AM): ICICI bank ...... i feel the market has over-reacted ...... may be some interested parties are manipulating the counter to squeeze people who wer short ...... 1200 put around 33 ... long and 1100 put around 7 short .... wl give good money with just 26 rs risk ......
11:23 PM madhav ranade (11/1/2010 10:00:57 AM): ICICI bank ...... bulk of the improvement in profit has come from lower provisioning ..... no doubt the NETT NPA is now lowest in last several qtrs but gross has gone up ..... 69 % provisioning is done .... so market is expecting that lower provisioning will continue ........ also to be kept in mind that the results are not strictly comparable due to merger of BOR on 12th august ...... results are good .... but do not warrant nearly 15/17 % & move up from 1080 ........ that is why i am saying that counter can correct in short term after the euphoria has waned .......
Friday, October 29 2010
09:32 PM
my article which will appear in diwali issue of the economic revolution
THE NEW TOP IS BECKONING . . .
So another diwali is approaching …… with new hopes, new dreams and possibility of a new all time high on NIFTY / SENSEX.
Everybody was cautiously optimistic last Diwali and that continued till July 2010. Everyone was talking about INDIA story but it was not getting converted in better stock prices.
Since mid-July the picture turned positive but big daddy Reliance started underperforming heavily and by last week August it slipped to 920 eroding all the gains made by banking and auto counters.
I kept on writing that unless and until Reliance starts performing … we will not get out of the tight range that we were holding for more than 30/35 weeks.
And it happened on 6th September. Reliance moved smartly from 920 odd to 950 in one session. We never looked back thereafter and we are now within a striking distance of new all-time high for both NIFTY as well as SENSEX.
Reliance has moved closer to 1100 now …. That is a near 20 % move and overall market has moved 12 to 14 %. A stupendous FII flow is the reason behind this awesome performance.
Since 6th September, more than 9 billion dollars have come to Indian markets only thru stock exchange. We have had several more than half a billion dollar days in last 40 trading sessions. This kind of in-flow was never seen – never imagined – by Indian market participants.
The effect is seen to be believed. We have more than half the nifty components at all time high values. And the only reason why we have not reached a new index high yet because the other half is lagging far behind. Telecom / Realty sector is badly underperforming and may continue to do so for some time to come. Reliance itself although recovered is still 30 % lower than all-time high reached in 2007.
COAL INDIA IPO has added a new chapter in Indian stock markets history. We have had huge over-subscription in QIB category. The brokers are hopeful that a part of the money will stay in the Indian market. If only 10 to 15 percent stays back, we will not only clear the old all-time high for indices but probably go about 6 to 8 % beyond that which will take NIFTY to 6600/6800 range.
But this has also meant that we have now stocks which are at peak valuations even considering 2011/12 performance. This makes a stock-pickers job a nightmare as one has to sift thru hundreds of stocks to find two or three which will give you decent return in the coming year.
So to conclude, I must say that everything looks rosy from where we stand now but we may have a tough year ahead if the FII flows turn to a trickle or dry completely. I shudder to think what will happen if they withdraw money for two consecutive weeks. At these hyper valuations there will be simply no Indian buyers to support the market and we may drop like a stone.
I urge all my investor friends that one must keep booking profit from time to time since it is money in the bank which matters than the paper profits.
Last but not the least – I am glad to announce that now I have my own website WWW.SUMAMURA.COM and all of you are welcome to visit the same. You will definitely find it much different than other financial websites that you may have seen.
I am giving below a table covering several frontline stocks and indices with annual entry / exit levels , stoploss and targets.
If you have any doubts you can reach me on 9371002943 or my email id madhavranade1@yahoo.com. I am also available on yahoo messenger with yahoo id madhavranade1.
WISING YOU ALL A VERY HAPPY DIWALI
&
A PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR
MADHAV RANADE – 28th October 2010
Wednesday, October 27 2010
12:00 AM
HDFC ...... when results came and stock was around 730/735 .... i had written that this is second consecutive qtr when HDFC has given just about OK results.
but due to FII fancy the stock has been ramped up to any proportion .... investors shud buy only in 650/670 zone .......
did u see any brokerage giving a sell on HDFC ..... but they hv been quietly selling .... otherwise the stock will not be at 673 today ......
i take immense pride and pleasure in these predictions coming true ..... HDFC is a true blue blooded stock ... and with huge FII holding ....
to get such a prediction right is more important to me than getting a 5 crore portfolio to manage ....... because MONEY IS NOT EVERYTHING ......... to me atleast
cheers ......
06:12 AM
madhav ranade (10/19/2010 9:34:54 AM): HDFC .... again this qtr nos also not something to write home about ...... and stock looks - at best - fairly valued in view of fancy with FIIs .....
as long as robust flows continue .... it may hold this price level ..... but in medium term there is 10 % downside for sure .........
remember my words ...... after last results i had said that u wl get the stock below 3000 .... when it was quoting at 3170 ..... and u did get it it at that price ........
06:14 AM
madhav ranade (10/14/2010 12:03:02 PM): INFY ..... the stock is trading at near all time high ...... to move up further .... it wl take super duper results plus improvement in guidance .......
with US dollar hovering around 44.3 a dollar ...... it wl need a very brave decision by the management. considering conservatism of INFY management, there is only a max 10 % chance of a strong improvement in guidance ....
it may be prudent to cut longs and wait for results .... otherwise buy a call spread 3200 call long and 3300 call short with nett risk of 37/38 rupees ....... think over and act quickly .....
u may also buy 3100 put to exploit any weakness in INFY post results ........
