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Trading levels --- 9^th / 13^th September 2013

We closed last week nearly 230 points positive – in spite of a huge 250 point down day on Tuesday. That shows the strength of the rally. Actually we have had 6 positive days out of last 7 trading sessions. This has mainly nullified all the bearish bias in the market mood ( for the time being ) and bulls have become euphoric.

However, not much has changed at the ground level and macros are still as bad as two weeks ago. The new RBI governor has put out some innovative ideas particularly for banking sector. These stocks were so badly beaten down that many have bounced up 20 odd percent after getting the elixir. This has led the rally in NIFTY.

Energy sector has also moved up hoping for some stiff diesel price increase announcement. This is slated to happen sometime during next week. The future of the rally will depend upon the extent of price increase in diesel as well as LPG and kerosene ( if at all ).

I believe this rally has limited scope to continue and will terminate between 5700 / 5770. I will pull out another 20 % from large cap stocks at that point. I will let the midcaps run for a few days more since the money made by the bull operators will partly flow to select midcaps.

I am a bit un-nerved by the under-performance of PSU banks compared to private banks – particularly in last 3 days. This indicates to me that something is seriously wrong with the economy which will hit these PSU banks below the belt in coming 6/8 weeks. THIS MAKES ME EXTRA CAUTIOUS.

I have released monthly trading levels for SEPTEMBER 2013 on my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/. You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades.

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.

POSN TRADING	daily close trigger		september 2013
stocks / indices	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
NIFTY SPOT	short	5500	5375/250/125/5000/4875	5625
NIFTY SPOT	long	5625	5750/875/6000	5500
sensex spot	short	18700	18475/250/025/17800/575	18925
sensex spot	long	19150	19375/600/825	18925
BANK NIFTY	short	9000	8780/560/340/120/7900	9220
BANK NIFTY	long	9440	9660/880/10100/320/540	9220
CNX IT	short	8180	8070/7960/850/740/630/520/410/300	8290
CNX IT	long	8400	8510/620/730/840	8290
RELIANCE	short	837	822/807/792/77/62	852
RELIANCE	long	852	867/82/97	837
ICICI	short	821	810/799/788/77/66/55/44/33/22	832
ICICI	long	843	854/65/76/87/98	832
SBI	short	1530	1500/1470/40/10/1380/50	1560
SBI	long	1590	1620/50/80/1710/40/70/1800	1560
axis bank	short	855	832.5/10/787.5/65/42.5/20	877.5
axis bank	long	900	922.5/45/67.5/90/1012.5/35	877.5
bajaj auto	short	1837	1813/1789/66/42/19/1695/72/48	1860
bajaj auto	long	1884	1917/41/64/88/2011	1860
DR REDDYS	short	2278	2235/2192/49/06/2063/20	2321
DR REDDYS	long	2321	2364/2407/50/93/2536	2278
CIPLA	short	402	395/88/81/74/67/60/53/46	409
CIPLA	long	416	423/30/37/44/51/58/65	409
BHARTI	short	291	279/67/55/43	297
BHARTI	long	303	315/27/39/51	297
IDEA	short	158	154/50/46/42/38/34/30	162
IDEA	long	166	170/74/78/82	162
RCOM	short	124	122/20/18/16/14/12/10/08/06/04/02	126
RCOM	long	128	130/32/34/36/38/40/42/44	126
HDFC	short	708	696/84/72/60/48/36/	720
HDFC	long	732	744/56/68/80/92	720
hdfc bank	short	596	587.5/79/70.5/62/53.5/45/36.5/28	604.5
hdfc bank	long	613	621.5/30/38.5/47	604.5
HUL	short	621	609/597/85/73/61/49	633
HUL	long	633	645/57/69/81	621620
LIC HSG FIN	short	166.5	163.25/60/56.75/53.5/50.25/47/43.75/40.5	169.75
LIC HSG FIN	long	173	176.25/79.5/82.75/86/89.25	169.75
M&M	short	790	774/58/42/26/10	806
M&M	long	806	822/38/54/70	790
MARUTI	short	1258	1226/1194/62/30/1098	1290
MARUTI	long	1290	1322/54/86	1258
TATA MOTORS	short	290	280/70/60/50	300
TATA MOTORS	long	300	310/20/30/40	290
LT	short	735	715/695/75/55/35	755
LT	long	755	775/95/815/35	735
ITC	short	310	304/298/92/86/80	316
ITC	long	322	328/34/40/46	316
REC	short	170	166/62/58/54/50/46/42/38	174
REC	long	178	182/86/90/94/98	174
TATASTEEL	short	268.5	262/55.5/49/42.5/36	275
TATASTEEL	long	275	281.5/88/94.5/301	268.5
IDFC	short	81	78/75/72/69	82.5
IDFC	long	84	87/90/93/96	82.5
INFY	short	3010	2935/860/785/710	3085
INFY	long	3085	3160/235/310	3010
TCS	short	1981	1936/1891/46/01	2026
TCS	long	2026	2071/2116/61/206	1981

commodities	daily close trigger		MONTHLY LEVELS - SEPTEMBER 2013
commodities	go	entry	targets
gold	short	1377	1344/11/1278/45/12	1410	usd/t ounce	↑
gold	long	1410	1443/76/1509/42	1377
silver	short	23.2	22.84/22.48/22.12/21.74/21.4/21.04	23.56	usd/t ounce	↑
silver	long	23.92	24.28/24.64/25/25.36/25.72	23.56
crude	short	106	104/02/100/98/96	108	usd/barrel	↑
crude	long	108	110/12/14/16	106
copper	short	3.2	3.135/3.07/3.005/2.94	3.265	usd/pound	↑
copper	long	3.265	3.33/3.395/3.46	3.2
sugar	short	470	458/46/34/22	482	usd/tonne	↓
sugar	long	482	494/506/18/30	470
N GAS	short	3.52	3.45/3.38/3.31/3.24/3.17	3.59	USD /10K mmbtu	↓
N GAS	long	3.59	3.66/3.73/3.8	3.52

buy TATASTEEL 270 put around 10/10.5 ......

MARUTI .... buy maruti put 1250 for 6 ...... i hv target of 1100/1150 for the stock .... tomorrow if sanand plant investment is deferred .... stock will simply crash ...... watch out ...

u can short fut also if u r a brave-heart .......

buy TECHM put 1300 ... around 3/3.5 ..... a pure lottery ticket .....

technically my charts indicate a big fall of about 100/150 rupees ..... we wl be lucky if it happens before thursday ....

RISK WORTH TAKING ......

MY WEEKLY TAKE ...

Trading levels --- 26th / 30th August 2013

Last weekend I was away so I am writing this column after two weeks. And this has been a tumultuous fortnight. We did see Rupee crossing 65 to a dollar and then closing at 63.20 – a sharp pull back in last two days and equally sharp up-move in NIFTY of 217 points from the lows of 5254 hit mid last week.

Our economy is in shambles – thanks to unbridled consumerism unleashed by UPA II government which is now blaming everything on GOLD and CRUDE imports. What an alibi to its own folly ! ! !

Our economist FM / The Dy Chairman of planning commission and FM should have seen it coming even with the closed eyes since the CAD we were running for last 8 quarters was simply astounding …. And we just watched without taking any action to prevent this crisis which was brewing .

It is now definitely a probable event that our sovereign rating may be downgraded in coming 6 months …. an event which will sent shudders through corporate INDIA. As a consequence, our stock markets will go for a toss with NIFTY levels of 4500 becoming a reality and THE GREAT INDIAN ROPE TRICK – the great Indian dream - will finally bite the dust.

More than 25 % Indian corporates – the listed and unlisted – have no earnings to service the interest cost on the huge debt piled by them when going was good and there was sea of liquidity around. Now the tide has turned and money is hard to come.

Given the above fact, one can imagine the plight of Indian banking sector 6 to 9 months down the line. The NPAs will go back to pre 2003/04 levels and valuations will crash as a consequence. Many PSU banks will be available at low single digits and private banks at mid triple digits …. What a come down from lofty levels seen just 3 / 4 months ago.

Last 5/6 trading sessions, FIIs have been nett sellers in cash market every day – even when the market has closed in green. If these are shapes of things to come, no announcement from FM can save this market as a miniscule amount like 3 / 4 billion dollars ( out of 200 billion invested in last 10 years ) withdrawal from cash segment will send nifty down by 500 NIFTY points easily.

I have released monthly trading levels for AUGUST 2013 on my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/. You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades.

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