Welcome to SUMAMURA

MY WEEKLY TAKE .....

Trading levels --- 5th / 9th August 2013

NIFTY showed nearly 210 points loss for the week. This means in last two weeks, NIFTY has lost over 6 %.

RBI announced policy on expected lines with no change in REPO or CRR. In fact the commentary was rather dovish. In spite of that NIFTY lost over 80 points that day. This was indicating inherent weakness in the market and it showed up in a big way on following 3 days.

RBI tightening has no desired effect on movement of Rupee and the slide continues. This means we can not rule out further tightening by RBI in coming two weeks as government is not likely to take any BOLD fiscal measures to support the rupee.

There is mayhem in bank stocks with most going back to early 2010 levels when NIFTY was around 4800 level. Private sector banks are also crashing since default in retail loan book may start next quarter as retail inflation continues unabated and fear of job losses is imminent on the horizon.

I talked about the crash of the titans - HUL and ITC - last week and that turned out to be prophetic. FMCG index crashed over 8 % last week.

Now only sector that is standing tall amongst the ruins is IT. Rupee is helping the sector to justify the valuations. There is sector rotation also from FMCG to IT.

Global cues are still very supportive. But for that fact, we would have been 300 NIFTY points lower by now – closer to 5400. But we are staring at that level and may hit in another 2 weeks time if Rupee slide is not halted immediately.

I have released monthly trading levels for AUGUST 2013 on my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/. You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades.

My monthly trading levels are out and paid members have them. At 3,000 rupees a year, they provide tremendous value for money proposition.

AUGUST LEVELS ....

POSN TRADING	daily close trigger		AUGUST 2013
stocks / indices	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
NIFTY SPOT	short	5555	5510/465/420/375/330	5600
NIFTY SPOT	long	5645	5690/735/780/825/870	5600
sensex spot	short	19340	19200/060/18920/780/640/500	19480
sensex spot	long	19620	19760/900/20040/180	19480
BANK NIFTY	short	10200	10080/9960/840/720/600/480/360	10320
BANK NIFTY	long	10440	10560/680/800/920/11040/160/280/400	10320
CNX IT	short	7700	7620/540/460/380/300/220/140	7780
CNX IT	long	7860	7940/8020/8100/180/260340/420/500	7780
RELIANCE	short	857	842/26/11/795/80	865
RELIANCE	long	873	888/904/19/35/50	865
ICICI	short	914	896/78/60/42/24/06	932
ICICI	long	932	950/68/86/1004/22/40	914
SBI	short	1721	1694/67/40/13/1586/59	1748
SBI	long	1748	1775/1802/29/56/83/1910/37/64	1721
axis bank	short	1048	1021/994/67/40/13/886/59	1075
axis bank	long	1075	1102/29/56/83/1210/37/64	1048
bajaj auto	short	1891	1849/07/1765/23/1681/39/1597	1933
bajaj auto	long	1933	1975/2017/59/2101/43/85	1891
DR REDDYS	short	2251	2207/2163/19/2075/29/1985/41	2295
DR REDDYS	long	2295	2339/83/2427/71/2515	2251
CIPLA	short	390	382/74/66/58/50	398
CIPLA	long	398	406/14/22/30/38/46	390
BHARTI	short	340	334/27/21/14/08/01	347
BHARTI	long	347	353/60/66/73/79	340
IDEA	short	166	164/62/60/58/56/54/52/50	168
IDEA	long	170	172/74/76/78/80/82	168
RCOM	short	134	130.5/27/23.5/20/16.5/13	137.5
RCOM	long	137.5	141/44.5/48/51.5/55	134
HDFC	short	806	794/82/70/58/46/34/22/10	818
HDFC	long	818	830/42/54/66/78/90	806
hdfc bank	short	615	600/585/70/55/40	630
hdfc bank	long	630	645/60/75/90/705/20	615
HUL	short	610	600/590/80/70/60/50/40/30	620
HUL	long	630	640/50/60	620
LIC HSG FIN	short	168.5	164/59.5/55/50.5/46/41.5/37	173
LIC HSG FIN	long	177.5	182/86.5/91/95.5/200	173
M&M	short	907	888/69/50/31/12	926
M&M	long	926	945/64/83 /1002	907
MARUTI	short	1323	1306/1289/72/55/38/21/04	1340
MARUTI	long	1357	1374/91/1408/25/42	1340
TATA MOTORS	short	292	286.5/81/75.5/70/64.5/59	297.5
TATA MOTORS	long	297.5	303/08.5/14/19.5/25	292
LT	short	849	839/29/19/09/799/89/79	859
LT	long	869	879/89/99/909/19/29/39	859
ITC	short	343	332/21/10/299	348.5
ITC	long	354	365/76/87/98	348.5
REC	short	163	159/55/51/47/43/39/35/31/27/23	167
REC	long	171	175/79/83/87/91/95/99	167
TATASTEEL	short	215	210/05/200/195/90/85/80	220
TATASTEEL	long	225	230/35/40/45/50/55	220
IDFC	short	110.5	108.5/06/04/01.5/99.5/97	113
IDFC	long	115	117.5/19.5/22/24/26.5/28.5	113
INFY	short	2916	2884/52/20/2788/56/24	2948
INFY	long	2980	3012/44/76/3108/40	2948
TCS	short	1791	1777/63/49/35/21/07/1693/79/65	1805
TCS	long	1819	1833/47/61/75/89/1903/17/31	1805

error from my side in NIFTY august levels.

pl note the correct levels.

POSN TRADING	daily close trigger		AUGUST 2013
stocks / indices	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
NIFTY SPOT	short	5735	5690/45/5600/5555/10	5780
NIFTY SPOT	long	5825	5870/5915/60/6005	5780

look to buy IDEA 165 put around 4.5 / 5 ........ idea wl go upto 169/70 when put wl be available around 4.5 to 5 ......

buy TITAN 240 put around 5 ..... it is like buying a lottery for 5,000 rupees .....

govt has to act with rupee crossing 61 to a dollar ..... if some drastic action is taken on gold imports ..... TITAN can crash to below 200 ...... put holders will hv a windfall gain ......

weekly		DATE	29th july / 2nd august 2013
world indices	go	entry	Target	Stoploss
S & P	short	1679	1768/56/45	1691
S & P	long	1691	1702/14/25	1679
nasdaq comp	short	3598	3574/50/26/02	3622
nasdaq comp	long	3622	3646/70/94	3598
dow jones	short	15525	15440/355/270/185/100	15610
dow jones	long	15610	15695/780/865	15525
FTSE	short	6515	6475/30/390/345/305	6560
FTSE	long	6560	6600/645/685	6515
nikkei	short	14065	13960/855/750/645/540	14170
nikkei	long	14170	14275/380/485/590	14065
australian ord	short	4994	4945/896/847/798/749/700	5043
australian ord	long	5043	5092/141/190	4994
hangseng	short	21820	21670/520/370/220	21970
hangseng	long	21970	11120/270/420	21820
shanghai	short	1994	1977/59/42/24	2012
shanghai	long	2012	2029/47/64	1994

MY WEEKLY TAKE .....

Trading levels --- 29th July / 2nd August 2013

NIFTY showed 143 points loss for the week. Mid-week, RBI announced some more liquidity tightening measures sending 10 year bond yields little over 8.5 %. This has queered the pitch for debt funds completely and most of short and medium term debt funds as well as income funds are showing huge losses over 2 week period.

None of these investors had bargained for such treatment as debt was considered a moderately safe heaven compared to volatile equity. I must say that most of the retail debt investors have shown tremendous maturity as there are very few redemptions from them while the corporate investors have resorted to large scale redemptions and put the proceeds into overnight call money market where the rates shot-up beyond 10 %.

By Friday the yields moderated to 8.2 % after some soothsaying words from Mr Raghuraman. Now all eyes are on 30th RBI policy and let us hope there is no increase in REPO rate or CRR.

CRISIL has submitted a report on Friday which says that with this sudden increase in short term rates, as many as 3,500 to 4,000 corporates will find it difficult to service their debt burden. This has spoiled the sentiment for banking stocks in completely. Just imagine if 500 corporate loans become NPA over next 9 to 12 months, how much bank profits will evaporate for provisioning. As a consequence BANK-NIFTY has nosedived below 10,500 level dragging NIFTY down. IT index was not able to do the balancing act.

Chinks are also appearing in heavyweight FMCG index with ITC and HUL both not giving large positive surprises to justify astronomical P/E ratios. Both corrected a bit and a small drop in FII inflow will mean a further steep drop in both index heavyweights.

All in all, in spite of very conducive global backdrop, Indian equities are not poised for any significant up-move. At most, we may hold a range of 5,800 to 6,000 in the coming week. But a SHORT trade looks to be more profitable than a LONG trade.

I have released monthly trading levels for JULY 2013 on my website – http://www.sumamura.com/sumamura-messages/ . You can have a look at the same before entering fresh trades.

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