October 2010
Saturday, October 30 2010
THESE ARE LEVELS FOR SAMVAT 2010-11.
FOR TRIGGER TWO WEEKLY CLOSES ABOVE / BELOW ARE DESIRABLE BUT ONE IS A MUST.
| posn trading lvls | samvat 2010-11 | |||
| stock / indices | go | entry | targets | stoploss |
| bse sensex | short | 19700 | 18800/300/17800/300/16800/30015900 | 20350 |
| long | 21000 | 21800/22500/23100/23700/24300/25000 | 20350 | |
| NIFTY SPOT | short | 5850 | 5710/570/430/300/160/020/4980/820 | 6050 |
| long | 6250 | 6330/6500/6680/6850/7030/7200/7380 | 6050 | |
| NSE bankex | short | 11600 | 11100/10600/10100/9600/9100/8600 | 12100 |
| long | 12600 | 13100/13600/14100/14600 | 12100 | |
| NSE IT | short | 6750 | 6300/5850/5400/4950 | 4475 |
| long | 7200 | 7650/8100/8550/9000 | 4475 | |
| ACC | short | 890 | 870/820/770/720/670/620 | 890 |
| long | 940 | 980/1040/1110/1170/1240/1300 | 940 | |
| axis bank | short | 1545 | 1480/15/1350/1285/20/1155/1090 | 1610 |
| long | 1610 | 1670/1725/1785/1840 | 1545 | |
| bhel | short | 2530 | 2450/2370/2290/2210/2130/2050/1970 | 2620 |
| long | 2720 | 2780/2840/2900/2960/3020/3080/3140 | 2620 | |
| bajaj auto | short | 1570 | 1490/1410/1330/1250/1170/1090 | 1650 |
| long | 1650 | 1730/1810/1890/1970 | 1570 | |
| BPCL | short | 715 | 685/630/575/520/465/410 | 755 |
| long | 755 | 780/830/890/940/990 | 715 | |
| bharti | short | 335 | 310/285/260/235 | 357 |
| long | 380 | 410/440/470/500 | 357 | |
| DLF | short | 420 | 390/360/330/300/270/240/210/180 | 435 |
| long | 450 | 480/510/540/570/600 | 435 | |
| dr reddy | short | 1510 | 1490/40/1390/40/1290/40/1190/40/1090/40 | 1555 |
| long | 1600 | 1630/90/1750/1810/70/1930/1990 | 1555 | |
| grasim | short | 2250 | 2180/05/2030/1955/1880/05/1730/1655/1580/05 | 2350 |
| long | 2450 | 2520/95/2670/2745/2820/95/2970/3045 | 2350 | |
| hcl tech | short | 410 | 385/55/25/295/65/35/05 | 430 |
| long | 430 | 465/500/535/570 | 410 | |
| GAIL | short | 500 | 480/60/40/20/400/380/60/40/20 | 520 |
| long | 520 | 540/60/80/600/620/40/60/80/700 | 500 | |
| hero honda | short | 1800 | 1750/1700/1650/1600/1550/1500/1450/1400 | 1860 |
| long | 1860 | 1875/1940/2005/70/2135/2200/2265/2330 | 1800 | |
| hindalco | short | 195 | 180/65/50/35/20/105 | 210 |
| long | 210 | 225/40/55/70/85/300 | 195 | |
| hdfc | short | 700 | 665/30/595/60/25/490/55/20 | 735 |
| long | 735 | 770/805/840/75 | 700 | |
| HUL | short | 290 | 275/60/45/30/15/200 | 305 |
| long | 305 | 320/35/50/65/80/95 | 290 | |
| icici bank | short | 1050 | 980/910/840/770/700/630/560 | 1120 |
| long | 1190 | 1260/1330/1400/70/1540 | 1120 | |
| infy | short | 2745 | 2685/20/2555/2490/25/2360/2295/30 | 2830 |
| long | 2830 | 2855/940/3025/110/195/3280/3365/3450/3535 | 2745 | |
| itc | short | 170 | 163/56/49/42/35/28/21 | 177 |
| long | 184 | 191/98/205/12/19/26 | 177 | |
| lic housing | short | 1280 | 1195/1110/1025/940/855/770 | 1325 |
| long | 1365 | 1450/1535/1620/1705/1790/1875 | 1325 | |
| LT | short | 2035 | 1940/1845/1750/1655/1560/1465/1370 | 2080 |
| long | 2130 | 2225/2320/2415/2510/2605/2700 | 2080 | |
| maruti | short | 1565 | 1505/1445/1385/1325/1265/1205/1145/1085 | 1625 |
| long | 1625 | 1685/1745/1805/1865 | 1565 | |
| m&m | short | 725 | 690/650/615/575/540/500/465/425 | 745 |
| long | 765 | 800/840/875/915/950 | 745 | |
| ongc | short | 1315 | 1260/1205/1150/1095/1040/985/930/875/820 | 1370 |
| long | 1370 | 1425/1480/1535/1590/1645/1700 | 1315 | |
| ranbaxy | short | 545 | 515/465/420/370/325 | 575 |
| long | 575 | 600/640/680/720/760/800 | 545 | |
| reliance | short | 1000 | 960/890/820/750/680/610 | 1055 |
| long | 1055 | 1105/85/1265/1345/1425 | 1000 | |
| sail | short | 187 | 166/144/123/101 | 204 |
| long | 220 | 247/274/301 | 204 | |
| sbi | short | 3100 | 2925/2750/2575/2400/2225/2050/1875/1700 | 3300 |
| long | 3300 | 3390/3480/3570/3660/3750/3840/3930/4020 | 3100 | |
| tata steel | short | 635 | 600/560/525/485/450/410/375/335 | 675 |
| long | 675 | 710/750/785/825/860/900 | 635 | |
| tata motor | short | 1220 | 1110/995/880/765/650 | 1270 |
| long | 1270 | 1340/1420/1500/1580 | 1220 | |
| tcs | short | 1055 | 980/905/830/755 | 1130 |
| long | 1130 | 1195/1260/1325/1390 | 1055 | |
| wipro | short | 425 | 400/375/350/325/300/275 | 450 |
| long | 450 | 475/500/525/550/575 | 425 | |
| BSE auto index | short | 9100 | xxx | 9600 |
| long | 9600 | xxx | 9100 | |
| BSE cap goods | short | 16000 | xxx | 16750 |
| long | 17500 | xxx | 16750 | |
| BSE FMCG | short | 3350 | xxx | 3525 |
| long | 3525 | xxx | 3350 | |
| BSE metal | short | 18200 | xxx | 19000 |
| long | 19800 | xxx | 19000 | |
| BSE oil & gas | short | 11300 | xxx | 11800 |
| long | 12300 | xxx | 11800 | |
| BSE PSU | short | 10400 | xxx | 10800 |
| long | 11200 | xxx | 10800 |
Friday, October 29 2010
nifty spot intra
short / long - 5996 / 6018
stoploss - 6007 for both
L targets - 6029/40/51/62/73
S targets - 5985/74/63/52/41
Friday, October 29 2010
| INTRA DAY | date | 29th october 2010 | ||
| stock | go | entry | targets | stoploss |
| BANK NIFTY | short | 12140 | 12090/030/ 11980/920/870/810 | 12170 |
| long | 12200 | 12250/310/360 | 12170 | |
| RELIANCE | short | 1081 | 1077/73/69/65 | 1085 |
| long | 1085 | 1089/93/97/1101 | 1081 | |
| TATA MOTORS | short | 1194 | 1189/84/79/74 | 1199 |
| long | 1199 | 1204/09/14/19 | 1194 | |
| ITC | short | 167 | 166.25/65.5/64.75/64/63.25 | 167 |
| long | 167.75 | 168.5/69.25/70/70.75/71.5 | 167.75 | |
| INFY | short | 2960 | 2955/40/25/10 | 2976 |
| long | 2976 | 2980/93/3007/20 | 2960 | |
| ICICI | short | 1090 | 1083/76/69 | 1097 |
| long | 1097 | 1104/11/18/25 | 1090 | |
| HDFC | short | 690 | 687/84/81/78/75/72/69/66 | 693 |
| long | 693 | 696/99/702/05 | 690 | |
| SAIL | short | 203 | 201.25/199.5/97.75/96 | 204.75 |
| long | 204.75 | 206.5/08.25/10 | 203 | |
| LT | short | 2011 | 2004/1997/90/83/76/69 | 2018 |
| long | 2018 | 2025/32/39 | 2011 | |
| GMR INFRA | short | 53.75 | 53.5/53.25/53/52.75/52.5 | 54 |
| long | 54 | 54.5/55/55.5/56 | 53.75 |
Friday, October 29 2010
my article which will appear in diwali issue of the economic revolution
THE NEW TOP IS BECKONING . . .
So another diwali is approaching …… with new hopes, new dreams and possibility of a new all time high on NIFTY / SENSEX.
Everybody was cautiously optimistic last Diwali and that continued till July 2010. Everyone was talking about INDIA story but it was not getting converted in better stock prices.
Since mid-July the picture turned positive but big daddy Reliance started underperforming heavily and by last week August it slipped to 920 eroding all the gains made by banking and auto counters.
I kept on writing that unless and until Reliance starts performing … we will not get out of the tight range that we were holding for more than 30/35 weeks.
And it happened on 6th September. Reliance moved smartly from 920 odd to 950 in one session. We never looked back thereafter and we are now within a striking distance of new all-time high for both NIFTY as well as SENSEX.
Reliance has moved closer to 1100 now …. That is a near 20 % move and overall market has moved 12 to 14 %. A stupendous FII flow is the reason behind this awesome performance.
Since 6th September, more than 9 billion dollars have come to Indian markets only thru stock exchange. We have had several more than half a billion dollar days in last 40 trading sessions. This kind of in-flow was never seen – never imagined – by Indian market participants.
The effect is seen to be believed. We have more than half the nifty components at all time high values. And the only reason why we have not reached a new index high yet because the other half is lagging far behind. Telecom / Realty sector is badly underperforming and may continue to do so for some time to come. Reliance itself although recovered is still 30 % lower than all-time high reached in 2007.
COAL INDIA IPO has added a new chapter in Indian stock markets history. We have had huge over-subscription in QIB category. The brokers are hopeful that a part of the money will stay in the Indian market. If only 10 to 15 percent stays back, we will not only clear the old all-time high for indices but probably go about 6 to 8 % beyond that which will take NIFTY to 6600/6800 range.
But this has also meant that we have now stocks which are at peak valuations even considering 2011/12 performance. This makes a stock-pickers job a nightmare as one has to sift thru hundreds of stocks to find two or three which will give you decent return in the coming year.
So to conclude, I must say that everything looks rosy from where we stand now but we may have a tough year ahead if the FII flows turn to a trickle or dry completely. I shudder to think what will happen if they withdraw money for two consecutive weeks. At these hyper valuations there will be simply no Indian buyers to support the market and we may drop like a stone.
I urge all my investor friends that one must keep booking profit from time to time since it is money in the bank which matters than the paper profits.
Last but not the least – I am glad to announce that now I have my own website WWW.SUMAMURA.COM and all of you are welcome to visit the same. You will definitely find it much different than other financial websites that you may have seen.
I am giving below a table covering several frontline stocks and indices with annual entry / exit levels , stoploss and targets.
If you have any doubts you can reach me on 9371002943 or my email id madhavranade1@yahoo.com. I am also available on yahoo messenger with yahoo id madhavranade1.
WISING YOU ALL A VERY HAPPY DIWALI
&
A PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR
MADHAV RANADE – 28th October 2010
Thursday, October 28 2010
| INTRA DAY | date | 27th october 2010 | ||
| stock | go | entry | targets | stoploss |
| BANK NIFTY | short | 12190 | 12160/130/100/070/040/010 | 12220 |
| long | 12220 | 12250/280/310/340/370/400 | 12190 | |
| RELIANCE | short | 1089 | 1083/77/71 | 1095 |
| long | 1095 | 1101/07/13 | 1089 | |
| TATA MOTORS | short | 1188 | 1182/76/70/64/58/52 | 1192.5 |
| long | 1197 | 1201.5/06/10.5/15 | 1192.5 | |
| GITANJALI | short | 301.5 | 300.5/297.5/94.5/91.5 | 173 |
| long | 303.5 | 304.5/07.5/10.5/12.5 | 172 | |
| INFY | short | 2965 | 2951/37/23/09/2895 | 2979 |
| long | 2979 | 2993/3007/21/35 | 2965 | |
| ICICI | short | 1102 | 1096/90/84/78 | 1108 |
| long | 1108 | 1114/20/26/32 | 1102 | |
| HDFC | short | 678 | 672/66/60/54 | 682 |
| long | 682 | 686/90/94/99 | 678 | |
| PETRONET | short | 115.5 | 114/113/12/11/10 | 116.5 |
| long | 116.5 | 117.5/18.5/20 | 115.5 | |
| LT | short | 2013 | 2006/2000/1994/88/82/76 | 2021 |
| long | 2021 | 2025/32/40/47 | 2013 | |
| CANARA BANK | short | 743 | 738.5/34/29.5/25 | 747.5 |
| long | 747.5 | 752/56.5/61 | 743 |
