February 2011
Tuesday, February 15 2011
nifty spot intra
short / long - 5462 / 5482
stoploss - opposit
L targets - 5502/22/42/62
S targets - 5442/22/02/5382/6
Monday, February 14 2011 TO Friday, February 18 2011
| world indices | weekly | levels | 14th / 18th feb 2011 | |
| index | go | entry | targets | stoploss |
| dow jones index | short | 12190 | 12145/12020/11895/770 | 12270 |
| long | 12270 | 12380/475/570 | 12190 | |
| nasdaq composit | short | 2790 | 2774/58/42/26/10 | 2821 |
| long | 2821 | 2842/61/80/99 | 2790 | |
| s&p 500 | short | 1324 | 1310/1296/82 | 1333 |
| long | 1333 | 1346/59 | 1324 | |
| FTSE | short | 6040 | 6005/5970/35/5900/5865/30 | 6095 |
| long | 6095 | 6130/65/6200 | 6040 | |
| nikkei 225 | short | 10630 | 10550/470/390/310/230/150 | 10710 |
| long | 10710 | 10790/10870/950/11030 | 10630 | |
| australia ordinary | short | 4965 | 4940/895/850/805 | 5010 |
| long | 5010 | 5025/55/80/5110 | 4975 | |
| hang seng | short | 22800 | 22600/400/200/22000 | 23000 |
| long | 23000 | 23200/400/600/800 | 22800 | |
| shanghai composit | short | 2823 | 2800/2777/54/31/08 | 2846 |
| long | 2846 | 2869/92/2915/38 | 2823 |
Monday, February 14 2011 TO Friday, February 18 2011
| all | rates | in | US dollars | ||
| commodity | weekly | levels | 14th / 18th february 2011 | unit | |
| type | go | entry | targets | stoploss | |
| gold | short | 1355 | 1347/39/31/23/15/07/1299 | 1363 | troy ounce |
| long | 1371 | 1379/87/95 | 1363 | ||
| silver | short | 29.88 | 29.62/29.36/29.1/28.84/28.58/28.32/28.06 | 30.14 | troy ounce |
| long | 30.4 | 30.66/30.92/31.18/31.44 | 30.14 | ||
| crude | short | 84.64 | 83.98/83.3282.66/82 | 85.3 | barrel |
| long | 85.3 | 85.96/86.62 / 87.28/87.94/88.6 | 84.64 | ||
| copper | short | 4.56 | 4.46/4.38/4.3/4.22 | 4.62 | pound |
| long | 4.62 | 4.71/4.78/4.86 | 4.56 | ||
| natural gas | short | 3.82 | 3.76/3.7/3.64/3.58/3.52 | 3.88 | mmbtu |
| long | 3.88 | 3.94/4/4.06/4.12 | 3.82 | ||
| sugar | short | 770 | 761/53/44 | 778 | tonne |
| long | 778 | 787/95/804 | 770 |
Monday, February 14 2011
tata motors ......
the stock has hit our long intra target of 1220 and then it has reacted ......
u must hv seen the domestic stand alone results ... which r DISMAL ...... with the sword of dtimulus removal hanging on its head ... the whole auto sector is going to underperform in the next 2 weeks and tata motors is not going to be an exception ...... base effect is also going to catch-up and this wl get accentuated with the pressure of higher interest rates ...... overall the picture is going to be rather gloomy locally ....
as far as JLR is concerned .... tata management itself has cautioned that this qtrs results r specifically good due to cross currency exchange rates movement which was favourable ... it may not be always like that ...
the exchange rates may not be always favourable .... and just a 3 % adverse movement of exchange rate ... which is entirely possible .... can wipe out 25 % JLR profits .... amounting to entire domestic profits .......
moreover it looks like that JLR is performing at its peak .... more or less .... hence the chances are 60/70 % that it will slip in the coming quarters rather than only 10 % chance that it will improve its performance further .....
also note that jaguar has sold lesser no of cars in 2010 than in 2009 ... and overall volumes is up only because of land rover ..... which has much lesser per piece contribution to bottom line .....
keeping all this in mind ..... i am not really very bullish inspite of my annual eps target of around 150
my annual eps target is 150 which is higher than most brokerages ...... since i refuse to give a high P/E multiple to such highly leveraged and skewed composition of EPS ......
to me , it looks the stock is fully priced around 1200 ... and the downside risks are much higher to warrant an "investment" at this level ......
investment call will hv to be taken at significantly lower level ..... to reduce downside risk significantly .....
i hope u agree to this hypothesis .... ...... yr comments are welcome ......
Monday, February 14 2011
| INTRA DAY | date | 14th february 2011 | ||
| stock | go | entry | targets | stoploss |
| BANK NIFTY | short | 10515 | 10445/375/305 | 10585 |
| long | 10585 | 10655/725/795 | 10515 | |
| CNX IT | short | 6750 | 6710/665/25/580 | 6795 |
| long | 6795 | 6835/80/920/965 | 6750 | |
| RELIANCE | short | 914 | 909/04/899 | 919 |
| long | 919 | 924/29/34 | 914 | |
| TATA MOTORS | short | 1151 | 1138/25/12/1099 | 1158 |
| long | 1165 | 1176/87/98/1209/20 | 1158 | |
| WIPRO | short | 418.5 | 415/11.5/08 | 422 |
| long | 422 | 425.5/29/32.5 | 418.5 | |
| ICICI | short | 1010 | 1003/996/89/82 | 1017 |
| long | 1017 | 1024/31/38 | 1010 | |
| SBI | short | 2607 | 2589/71/53 | 2625 |
| long | 2625 | 2643/61/79 | 2607 | |
| LT | short | 1571 | 1563/55/47/39 | 1579 |
| long | 1579 | 1587/95/1603/11 | 1571 | |
| REL INFRA | short | 623 | 613/03/593/83 | 628 |
| long | 633 | 643/53/63 | 628 | |
| TATA STEEL | short | 604 | 600.5/597/93.5/90 | 607.5 |
| long | 607.5 | 611/14.5/18 | 604 |
